Global 3PL Shake-Up: Brexit, Pandemic, and War Reshape Logistics

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Presented by Baker Ing: Your Guide Through the Complex 3PL Industry

Venture into the intricate world of Third-Party Logistics (3PL), where global events and technological advancements continuously transform the industry. Baker Ing, renowned for our prowess in managing high-value and sensitive accounts, delivers customised solutions designed for key players in this dynamic field.

At Baker Ing, we combine the strengths of our experienced credit professionals with targeted strategies, equipping you to excel in the challenging 3PL sector.

Explore the unique advantages offered by Baker Ing and understand how our collaboration can elevate your approach to receivables management and credit control in an industry where precision and strategic foresight are paramount.


Webinar Wrap-Up: Credit Frontier 2024

What a session! A huge thank you to our speakers – Shaun ReesMarkus Kuger, and special guest Ray Massey – for a deep dive into 2024’s economic and credit landscape.


Here’s a quick recap for those who joined us and a glimpse for those who missed out:


📊 Economic Update 2024:
Markus Kuger revealed key economic indicators facing weak growth and rising credit risks. Insights into sectoral trends showed a mix of resilience and challenges, with services leading improvements but basic materials and consumer goods lagging. Consumer confidence has shown slight improvements, but inflation and global GDP growth projections indicate a cautious approach for 2024.

🌍 Insider’s Perspective from Insurance:
Ray Massey‘s keynote brought a unique underwriting perspective, discussing the all-time high in corporate insolvencies and the significance of maintaining robust relationships with credit underwriters in challenging times.

🏗️ Credit Risk and Business Impact:
Shaun Rees provided an in-depth analysis of how these economic trends translate into direct impacts on businesses. From technical recessions to inflationary pressures, the session highlighted the importance of strategic risk management and adaptive credit strategies in an uncertain market.


Key Takeaways

  • Prepare for a challenging year ahead with potential technical recessions.
  • Anticipate continued inflationary pressures but with some subsidence.
  • Adapt to rising credit risks with strategic adjustments in risk assessments and collection strategies.
  • Embrace a proactive approach in credit management, leveraging insights into sector-specific trends and economic indicators.


As promised, attendees will shortly receive an exclusive detailed report from our speakers for a deeper understanding. Keep a look out for this tomorrow.

Missed the live session? Want the report? Don’t worry, you can still register to watch the recording and access the report here: LINK

Stay tuned for more updates. In the meantime check out all the complimentary resources at Global Outlook.


Media and Advertising 2024: Inside the High-Stakes World of Global M&A

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Presented by Baker Ing: Your Navigator in the Media & Advertising Maze

Step into the fast-evolving world of Media and Advertising, where cutting-edge technology and consumer trends are constantly reshaping the landscape. Baker Ing, renowned for our expertise in high-value and sensitive accounts, offers bespoke solutions tailored for global brands in this dynamic sector.

Navigating the M&A Jungle with Precision and Insight

At Baker Ing, we bring together seasoned credit professionals and industry-specific strategies to help you stay ahead in the competitive Media & Advertising arena.

Discover the Baker Ing difference and see how our partnership can revolutionise your approach to receivables management and credit control in a sector where every move counts.


FMCG 2023: Charting a Path Through FMCG's Changing Landscape

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Presented by Baker Ing: Specialists in High-Value and Highly-Sensitive Accounts Receivable

Dive into the dynamic and ever-changing universe of Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG), a sector where quick adaptation meets strategic foresight. Baker Ing stands as a beacon of expertise, particularly skilled in managing high-value and highly-sensitive accounts. Our bespoke services are crafted for global brands that operate in the fast-paced FMCG industry, ensuring they stay ahead in a market defined by rapid consumer trends and shifting preferences.

Seeking a Strategic Partner in the FMCG Sector?

Experience the advantage of specialised expertise with Baker Ing. Our team, comprised of seasoned credit professionals, excels in crafting tailored strategies to navigate the unique challenges of the FMCG landscape. We invite you to engage with us and discover how a partnership with Baker Ing can revolutionise your collections.


Beauty & Perfumes 2023: Navigating a World of Elegance and Uncertainty

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Download this paper soon from Global Outlook: Download

Presented by Baker Ing: Specialists in High-Value and Highly-Sensitive Accounts Receivable

Step into the vibrant world of beauty and perfumes, where elegance meets the cutting edge of industry trends and market shifts. Baker Ing offers unparalleled expertise in navigating such high-value, sensitive accounts. Our services are tailored for global brands seeking to flourish amidst the fluid beauty landscape, providing clarity and strategic foresight in a world of ever-changing styles and preferences.

Looking for a Strategic Ally in the Beauty & Perfume Industry?

Discover the power of specialised expertise with Baker Ing. Our team, composed of adept credit professionals, is dedicated to developing custom solutions that meet the unique challenges of the beauty and perfume sector. We invite you to connect with us and explore how a partnership with Baker Ing can transform your approach and guide your journey to success in the world of beauty and perfumes.


Spain Spotlight 2023

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Presented by Baker Ing: For High-Value and Highly-Sensitive Accounts Receivable

As Spain continues its economic recovery, opportunities abound for growth-oriented companies. Baker Ing stands ready to support your success, leveraging in-depth expertise in the Spanish market to inform strategic decisions. Our services, relied upon by leading organisations, enable proactive planning and incisive action.

 

RiskPulse Dashboard: Precision at Your Fingertips

The full Spain Spotlight 2023 report is available to view online here anytime at no cost for your convenience. However, you may also download the entire report in PDF format from Global Outlook if you prefer an offline viewing experience. While the downloadable version provides portability, we recommend viewing the report online here for the best interactive experience, including dynamic updates not available in the PDF version: download

 

Recognise the value of strategic partnership

Envision the transformative impact of aligning with focused expertise. Engage with our team of credit professionals, each dedicated to creating bespoke solutions tailored to your unique needs in Spain: Contact us


Automotive 2023: Your VIP Guide to Risk & Opportunity, Now Hassle-Free and Open Access

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Presented by Baker Ing: Specialists in High-Value and Highly-Sensitive Accounts Receivable

In the ever-shifting landscape of the automotive industry, discerning and navigating risks and opportunities as they arise is critical. Baker Ing is uniquely positioned at this intersection, employing international expertise in managing high-value and sensitive accounts to facilitate insightful decision-making. Trusted by global brands, our services enable clients to strategically anticipate changes and act with foresight.

Looking for a Strategic Partner?

If you value the transformative effects of aligning with specialised expertise, we invite you to engage with our team. Our credit professionals are committed to designing solutions that are as unique as the challenges you face in the automotive sector. To explore how a partnership with Baker Ing can benefit you, please contact us.


Healthcare 2023

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Presented by Baker Ing: For High-Value and Highly-Sensitive Accounts Receivable

In today’s dynamic healthcare environment, the ability to discern emerging trends and risks is paramount. Baker Ing stands at the forefront, leveraging international expertise in high-value, sensitive accounts to empower informed decision-making. Our services, relied on by global leaders, facilitate strategic foresight and proactive action.

RiskPulse Dashboard: Precision at Your Fingertips
Understanding that time is a premium asset for professionals, we offer the RiskPulse Dashboard as a companion to this report – a distilled version to provide essential insights in a concise format. You can download the dashboard here (click here)

Recognise the value of strategic partnership? Envision the transformative impact of aligning with focused expertise. Engage with our team of credit professionals, each dedicated to creating bespoke solutions tailored to your unique needs: Contact us


The Changing Tides of France's Trade Credit

In the streets of Paris, cafes bustle with conversations about politics, art, and lately, the state of the economy. Amidst the whiff of freshly baked croissants, another aroma lingers: the subtle scent of financial anxiety. As France grapples with the aftershocks of global events, businesses find themselves in a peculiar position, especially when it comes to credit.

Once considered a routine part of doing business, extending credit to trade partners in France has evolved into a high-stakes game. Businesses are increasingly contending with longer payment terms. In fact, the average payment period has stretched to 53 days, significantly longer than the traditional 30-day norm. This extension reflects a broader shift in the French economy, characterised by the impact of global disruptions and local political decisions.

But what does this mean for businesses on the ground? The answer is clear: collections have never been more critical. Ensuring that invoices are paid on time has become both an art and a science. The challenges of the modern economic landscape require a nuanced approach to collections, one that melds digital innovation with the age-old power of relationship building.

Here’s the crux of the matter: while longer payment terms might ease immediate pressures on buyers, they can strain supplier relationships and threaten the financial health of businesses that don’t have robust collections processes in place. And, as state-guaranteed loans become a double-edged sword, the risk of default grows.

For businesses in France, navigating this terrain demands a sector-specific approach. Different industries face distinct challenges. The hospitality sector, for example, has been hit hard by the pandemic and political unrest, leading to a spike in insolvencies. On the other hand, France’s tech startups, bolstered by a supportive ecosystem, offer a brighter picture, with fewer defaults. Recognising these differences within the broader macroeconomic context is key.

It’s not just about chasing overdue payments. Collections in this new era are about understanding your customer’s position, offering flexible solutions, and leveraging digital tools to streamline processes. Businesses need to be proactive, anticipating challenges before they arise and addressing them in a manner that balances financial prudence with empathy.

Navigating the multifaceted economic landscape of France requires an in-depth understanding. From the ripples of the Russia-Ukraine conflict to the ever-present spectre of inflation and the complexities of energy prices, the challenges and opportunities are abundant. But how does one manoeuvre through these challenges and harness the opportunities?

For a comprehensive analysis, insights, and guidance tailored specifically for Credit Managers, consider the latest “France Spotlight 2023” report. This meticulously curated document delves deep into the current economic status of France, offering a thorough examination of market trends, political shifts, and their implications on trade credit decisions.

The French saying, “C’est la vie,” or “Such is life,” captures the essence of acceptance in the face of unpredictability. But when it comes to trade credit in France, acceptance isn’t enough. Businesses need strategy, foresight, and adaptability. As France’s trade credit environment continues to evolve, those who master the art of collections will not only survive but thrive, turning challenges into opportunities.

 

Chris Snelson, CFO, Baker Ing International 

 

🔗 Download “France Spotlight 2023” Here: http://www.bakering.global/product/france-spotlight-2023/


Spring Budget 2023 and its impact on credit management

in this blog, Baker Ing's Chief Economic Advisor, Markus Kuger, gives his analysis of the recent Uk budget announcements and what its means for credit management.

Summary

  • The Spring Budget contains limited handouts for consumers (more free childcare and longer energy bill support) and companies (100% expensing for capital expenditure, creation of investment zones).
  • Corporation tax will go up for companies with annual profits higher than GBP50,000 and business rates still remain under review.
  • Macroeconomic forecasts have improved in this Budget with growth revised upwards and inflation changed downwards.
  • Despite this, living standards will still drop quickly this year with negative repercussions on the business and consumer sentiment.
  • Despite the support measures announced in the Spring Budget, 2023 will remain challenging as the risk of late or non-payment is likely to rise, on top of the deterioration seen in 2022.

Policy measures aimed at supporting growth

While Kwasi Kwarteng’s Mini-Budget in September 2022 shocked markets and ultimately led to his and Prime Minister Liz Truss’ departure, the Spring Budget presented by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt on 15 March produced more positive news as it contained handouts for households and businesses in order to stimulate the ailing UK economy. While consumers will benefit from a continuation of the energy support package for an additional three months, more free childcare, higher pension allowances for well-earners and frozen alcohol and fuel duties, the support for the corporate sector was smaller.

The most noteworthy handout to businesses was the introduction of full 100% expensing for capital expenditure on qualifying plant and machinery for the next three years. This policy, aimed at increasing investment will mainly help businesses with large qualifying capital expenditure in excess of the annual investment allowance. Companies operating in sectors involving less plant and machinery spend (often found in the service sector which accounts for more than 70% of UK GDP), or businesses that are loss-making, will not benefit from the new policy though.

The second policy measures aimed at increasing gross fixed capital formation was the creation of 12 so called investment zones, a plan already included in Kwarteng’s Autumn Statement. In order to “drive business investment and level up”, the zones will be created in the West Midlands, Greater Manchester, the North-East, South Yorkshire, West Yorkshire, East Midlands, Teesside, and Liverpool. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will also be home to a zone each and the ultimate location will be decided in consultation with the devolved governments. Each of the investment zones in England will have access to GBP80m (including tax reliefs and grants) over the next five years and local authorities will be able to tailor their plans around local circumstances. The proposals must credibly explain how partners in the local area will use the levers available to increase growth in priority sectors, identify private-sector match funding and use the local planning system to support growth. The zones will likely be linked to universities and leading research institutions and will enhance growth in five key sectors: life sciences, creative industries, digital technology, advanced manufacturing and green industries.

Reform to research and development tax relief, creative industry relief and extension of cultural reliefs as well as reduced paperwork for international traders also feature in the Budget but the effects will be limited.

However, the Budget also contained unwelcome news for companies. Most notably, the chancellor confirmed the rise in corporation tax, a measure that was flagged up long in advance. For companies with a taxable profit exceeding GBP250,000 per year, the rate will increase from currently 19% to then 25%. The rate will remain at 19% for companies with a profit of below GBP50,000 and businesses with profits between GBP50,000 and GBP250,000 will pay between 19% and 25%. No decisions have yet been made regarding business rates. Two consultations were recently closed and the government has promised to release the findings shortly. In addition, the Budget foresees the launch of two new consultations: one on providing ratepayers with more information on their business rates valuations, and the second on measures to combat avoidance and evasion. While business rates remain unchanged for the time being, it is clear that reform still ranks highly on the government agenda and changes can be expected in one of the next Budgets.

Revised set of macroeconomic forecasts show improvements

For credit risk professionals the policy changes announced by the chancellor are probably of limited importance. However, the Budget also contained a set of new macroeconomic forecasts which are interesting from a credit risk perspective. Positively, the macroeconomic outlook has improved over the past months. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR, a non-departmental public body established in 2010 to provide independent economic forecasts) now predicts the UK economy to avoid a recession and to shrink by 0.2% only this year, compared with the previous forecast of -1.4%. Main driver behind this improvement is the moderation of energy prices which will also have a positive effect on government finances. Instead of borrowing GBP170bn in 2022-23 (as previously forecasted), the government deficit will come in at a lower GBP152bn while for the next financial year, borrowing will be GBP8.5bn smaller than initially anticipated. Over the medium term, the chancellor also expects slightly improved government finances: in 2027-28, government borrowing will stand at GBP50bn, down from a previously forecasted GBP70bn. Despite the lower borrowing, government debt will remain at a high level of around 95% of GDP, making the government vulnerable to higher debt refinancing costs (which have already risen over the past year).

Chart: Real GDP Growth Forecasts OBR

Problematically, even with the revised set of GDP forecasts, the UK will be the slowest growing G7 economy this year and the average annual growth rate for the UK economy for 2020-28 will come in at just 1%, compared with the 2.8% recorded before the global financial crisis in 2008-09. While pre-Covid real GDP levels in the UK will finally be reached again in mid-2024, six months earlier than expected in the last Budget, this is later than in any other G7 economy (which are already exceeding Q4 2019 outputs). For consumers, the normalisation in energy prices and the extended government support is welcome news but nonetheless, real disposable income per capita (which measures living standards) is projected to drop by a cumulative 5.7% over 2022-23 and 2023-24. This is 1.4 percentage points lower than previously feared but it is still the largest two-year fall since the start of this data series in 1956-57. As a consequence, households will continue to reduce non-discretionary spending this year with negative repercussions on domestic demand.

Positively for the interest rate outlook, the OBR’s inflation forecast was also updated: after having peaked at above 11% in Q4 2022, consumer price inflation will slow down to 2.9% in Q4 2023, according to the latest set of projections. While still slightly above the Bank of England’s (BoE) 2.0% inflation target, it would be the lowest rate since Q3 2021. Easing energy price inflation, a slowing economy and the response to the sharp monetary tightening cycle the BoE had embarked on over the past quarters all play a part in this drop inflationary pressures. While the BoE will likely rise interest rates a few more times this year, the speed and the magnitude of the tightening cycle will certainly drop. The key policy rate stood at 0.1% until December 2021 and has since been hiked ten times to currently 4%. Markets are pricing in a terminal rate of 4.5%, reached by mid-2023.

Chart: Inflation Forecasts OBR

From a credit risk perspective, 2023 will be a challenging year, despite the drop in inflation and the better than expected real GDP growth. Consumer price increases will outperform nominal wage growth for the next quarters, thereby leading to a drop in disposable income. Consumer confidence has improved in late 2022 before dropping again in early 2023 and the levels recorded are still low, indicating widespread pessimism amongst households which will impact adversely on their willingness to spend. UK business confidence indicators (such as the Purchasing Managers’ Index) have improved in February but still indicate challenges ahead (such as a drop in new order inflow in the manufacturing sector).

The challenging operating conditions in 2023 will adversely impact on the number of business failures. Worryingly, 2022 already saw a stark increase in liquidations in England and Wales, according to the government’s Insolvency Service. One in 202 active companies (equivalent to 49.5 per 10,000 active companies) entered insolvency proceedings last year, up from 32.9 per 10,000 active companies in 2021 and the highest ratio since Q3 2015. Overall, 22,109 company insolvencies were registered in England and Wales last year (Scotland and Northern Ireland also recorded increases), up by 57% and the highest reading since 2009.

Chart: Registered Company Insolvencies in England and Wales

Source: Insolvency Service

For 2023, another increase in the number of business failures is likely as low growth, reduced government support on the energy cost front for companies and comparatively high interest rates will all create headwinds for companies’ cash flow and profitability. Carrying out frequent counterparty risk assessments and teaming up with trusted advisors is recommended against this backdrop.


Baker Ing Credit News: Construction Feb 2023

Stay up-to-date with the latest fashion news by watching the Baker Ing News for Credit Professionals: Your rundown of January's most important developments in just 2 minutes.

For more in-depth insights, download the complimentary report on "Fashion in the USA 2022" here: https://bakering.global/product/repor...

If you found this useful, why not join us at the next Let's Talk Credit Ltd fashion forum in London on February 8th? Connect with industry leaders and hear from top experts in the field. If you're interested in attending, please contact us for an invitation.


Baker Ing Credit News: Construction Feb 2023

Stay up-to-date with the latest construction news by watching the Baker Ing News for Credit Professionals: Your rundown of January's most important developments in just 2 minutes.

For more in-depth insights, download the complimentary report on "Construction in Europe 2022" here: Construction in Europe 2022

If you found this useful, why not join us at the next Let's Talk Credit Ltd Construction forum in London on February 7th? Connect with industry leaders and hear from top experts in the field. If you're interested in attending, please contact Christina Onofrei for an invitation.


Economic Bulletin Oct 2022

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Download this full report from the Global Outlook store:  https://bakering.global/product/bulletin-economic-outlook-oct-2022/ 

  • The final quarter of 2022 and 2023 will be challenging as economic and political headwinds are increasing.
  • Recession risks are rising as consumer and industrial confidence indicators are plummeting.
  • Inflation is currently on a 40-year high but will moderate in 2023 because of base effects and tighter monetary policy.
  • Supply chain risk is still above pre-pandemic levels but has fallen in recent months with maritime shipping costs dropping (also linked to the weaker economic outlook).
  • Payments performance in Europe improved in mid-2022 but Ireland and the UK performed against the trend and saw longer delays in B2B payments. • The number of business failures in the EU rose in April-June 2022, a fifth consecutive quarter of increase.
  • That said, the number of business failures still stands below pre-pandemic readings and some countries (such as Germany and Italy) still continue to report improvements.
  • Looking ahead, credit risk in Europe will rise as the economy is slowing, interest rates are rising quickly and banks are likely to tighten lending. • Elections in France, Sweden and Italy in Q2 and Q3 2022 ended with at least partial victories of antiestablishment far-left and far-right parties
  • Policy making will become more complicated as approval ratings for incumbent governments will fall amidst a cost of living crisis and the looming recession.
  • Companies should assess counter-party risks closely and team up with trusted advisors to minimise the adverse impact of the deteriorating political and economic environment.

Download this full report from the Global Outlook store: https://bakering.global/product/bulletin-economic-outlook-oct-2022/