Report: Southern Europe Economic Outlook

Description

Positively, after having contracted by high single digits or even low double digits in 2020, real GDP growth in the region has turned positive again. In the Eurozone (to which all four covered markets belong), the economy fell by 1.3% year on year (y/y) in January-March 2021 but switched into a much higher gear in Q2 when real GDP expanded by a never seen before 13.6%. While some of the recovery is caused by the gradual abolition of lockdown measures in European economies, a substantial part of it is triggered by base effects: in Q2 2020, the height of the first lockdown Eurozone real GDP had collapsed by 14.4% y/y. Despite the upturn in recent months, real GDP in the euro area is still around 3% below the prepandemic reading in Q4 2019.

30 pages.